Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
